Political opinion aside, the ongoing Iran intelligence wrangle between the U.S. Intelligence agencies and the White House beautifully illustrates the mercurial nature of the intelligence world. Either side could be right – Perhaps, as the White House crew insist, Iran is intent on developing nuclear weapons or, as the Intelligence people state, it is not. Intelligence involves a sliding scale of certainty, evidencing at any point in time what might happen on a balance of probability.  

In an age that clamours for proof, and with leaders that encourage the population at large to believe in absolutes, this is confusing to say the least. Consider Colin Powell’s presentation of Intelligence to the UN in 2003 prior to the invasion of Iraq. He presented weapons of mass destruction intelligence as proven fact or information, prompting fence-sitters/the uncertain to support the invasion. In fact, as we now know, he did little more than deliver bad intelligence to the world body. In the present situation, the world is forced to work with uncertainty in considering what Iran might be planning – Good intelligence will indicate on a balance of probability which side is right. As it turns out, public perception will be the deciding factor right now.

This is not an ideal state of affairs. Betrayal of trust has influenced public opinion and will certainly influence the course of action in the months/years to come.

So too in business, we would do well to remember that chickens do come home to roost. The future will always be uncertain and fraught with risk – Why make matters more difficult by rolling the dice with client, investor or public confidence?